SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 5/31/22 at 4151.09.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.
The bottom window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. It’s rare for the McClellan Oscillator to reach above +300; on Friday, it closed at +351. We identified the times when the McClellan Oscillator closed above +300 going back to mid-2005 with blue vertical lines, and all happen at significance lows or in an uptrend. What that means on the current market is that either the SPX is building a base to go higher or the rally has started. In both scenarios, it suggests the down trend is over.
The rally over the last three days produced a “Zweig Breadth Thrust”. This indicator signals the start of a potential new bull market when it moves from a level of below 40% to a level above 61.5% within any 10-day period. We pointed out previous times on the chart above when the “Zweig Breadth Thrust” occurred. Could be basing here, but a new bull run is possible.
Things are easier to see on the bottom window, which is GLD, the ETF for Gold. GLD is on the monthly timeframe and it’s easy to see the Bollinger Bands pinching. The “pinch” could go on for a couple of months or end today; it is hard to say when the “pinch” will end. The pattern forming appears to be a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, which usually are symmetric both in time and price. The Left Shoulder took about 1½ years to form; in turn, the Right Shoulder should take about 1½ years to form, and GLD is at that mark now. The Gold chart (the big window) shows that market has only retraced 38.2% of the rally that began in late 2018, suggesting gold is at the halfway point of the up move; that suggests a strong rally is very near. Time is running out of the Bollinger Band “Pinch” and an impulse wave higher should be starting soon.
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Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.